THE GOOD NEWS AND THE BAD NEWS – AT 10:40 P.M. ET:  I went to a briefing today by a key figure in MEMRI, the Middle East Media Research Institute, which is based in Israel.  MEMRI was founded to solve the problem of Arab leaders saying one thing in English to the West, and something entirely different in Arabic to their brethren.  MEMRI is a translation service that informs Western journalists what the Arabs are saying in their own language.  It's been a revelation.

Of course, MEMRI is disparaged by chic Western journalists, who regularly accuse it of being just a branch of the Israeli lobby, but it's translations have proved impeccable and are used all over the world.

The gentleman today had good news and bad news.  The good news was his feeling, based on what's being said in the Arab world, that the revolutions now in progress will be good for the United States and other Western countries.  He based this on a unique interpretation of events – that Arabs are now turning inward, trying to improve their own societies, and hostile to the usual excuses.  As a result, they will have little appetite for ideological foreign adventures, or campaigns directed against us.

Also, the gentleman said, the threat of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is exaggerated.

He said that hatred toward the West, and toward Christians and Jews, will probably last for centuries, but that it will be benign because there'll be no incentive to act on it.  Not the greatest deal, but better than people planting bombs.

That's the good news.  The bad news, and it was surprising to me, involved Jordan.  Of all Arab countries, Jordan has probably been closest to the United States.  The late King Hussein was a friend who also made peace with Israel.  His son, the current King Abdullah, seems similarly disposed.  But the man from MEMRI warned that Islamists are rapidly taking over Jordan, and the brand of Islamism involved is Al Qaeda.  The implications for us are enormous should this trend continue.  Jordan has always been dependable, and a bulwark against extremism.  No more, according to this source.

It's always fascinating to listen to someone who actually reads Arabic, and isn't housed in one of the "Middle East Studies" departments of American or British universities.

April 13, 2011